AT&T to bring out Nokia phone with Windows

Last week, Steve Ballmer joined Nokia CEO Stephen Elop in unveiling the Lumia 900, their newest phone at a press event in Las Vegas (ahead of CES). The device represents Nokia and Microsoft's best chance yet to break Google and Apple's hold on the U.S. smartphone market. The new phone will use AT&T's LTE wireless data network. Since this is Nokia and Microsoft's (last?) chance to disrupt the most lucrative phone market, I can't wait to get my hands on one of them and experience the new device. I also would like to hear about their developer plans.

Will BlackBerry survive 2012?

Good article here. The answer is no. According to research group Canalys, RIM's share of the smartphone market in the US fell to 9.2% in the third quarter from 24% in the same period last year. You don't recover from this kind of numbers, not unless you have a great plan in the works.

There might be room for another developer environment on top of iOS and Android, but it is not going to be RIM (Microsoft is not going to abandon a market that could grow into a trillion dollars). RIM totally missed the apps boat and doesn't have an attractive value proposition for users and developers. Why would you spend time and money porting your apps on a platform with a declining number of activated users?

Google to Buy Motorola Mobility for $12.5 Billion

Looks like Larry Page didn't waste time since he moved to the CEO position. It is hard to believe that the acquisition was made for Motorola's hardware business. Google wouldn't risk alienating all the smart phone makers (Samsung, HTC) who are using the Android operating system. It seems to me that Google wanted to make sure that no patent lawsuit would stop Android's growth. I see a few dark clouds on the horizon for this acquisition:

• Looking at the problems AT&T is facing with the T-Mobile acquisition, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Feds looking at this transaction very closely and, despite approving other patent acquisitions, investigating the run for patents.
• Set top box, smart phone and tablet manufacturers may ask Google to reconsider the move or get guarantees from Google about the future of their relationships.
• Nearly 20,000 employees to integrate in a software, Silicon Valley culture-driven company. It will be a challenge for both sides to adjust to the new environment.

There is no doubt that there is a huge patent war going on between Google on one side and Apple and Microsoft on the other side. What will happen when they run out of patents to buy?

How many Java developers are there?

Over 9M according to this blog post. I first looked at Java back in 1996. An engineer at Alcatel brought the first copy of "Java in a Nutshell" and said: "This is the future".

The author of the blog says that at the time of Java's open sourcing in 2007, there were 6 million Java developers and the number of Java developers had been rising at an average of 0.75 million per year during the previous two years. After Java was open sourced, that number shot up to 1 million per year.

Why the success?
From a technical point of view, "Write Once, Run Anywhere" and a solid set of APIs would do the trick.
From a business point of view, Free and a "transparent" Java Community Process would work, but a solid evangelist like Sun Microsystems is also needed.

As the back-end is moving to the cloud and the front-end is moving to mobile devices, Google and Apple are in control of the user experience. Java is still very relevant (through Android for the front-end).

Disruption at work: Apple's iPad

Apple has done it again. The Cupertino guys have, one more time, dramatically changed how people consume digital content with their new iPad device. This is on the same scale as the iPod and iPhone introduction. Digital content streaming is going to explode with the adoption of the iPad. The size, the weight, the resolution and the price make it the perfect device to use in the house. I don't like to look too far back, but Apple is superbly executing on their strategy as discussed in an early 2006 post. So who should be concerned with the new iPad?

• Amazon. It's going to take a lot of work for the Kindle to get any significant traction unless there is a big change in design and business model.
  


• Carriers. AT&T gets a 3GSM model to increase its subscriber base in an environment where ARPU is declining. Verizon and Sprint must be worried and so should be other carriers worldwide.
  


• Print Media. It's going to be very interesting to watch how media companies such as newspapers are going to react to the new device. Why do you want to pay for print newspapers/magazines ever again? I'd better monitor newspapers sales and distribution from now on.
  


• Device manufacturers (Nokia, RIM, Samsung, LG). Apple is all over the house now, they have so many touch points with the consumer that the barriers to entry will be too high for you and you may become irrelevant quickly.
  


• Google. This is a double-edged sword. Apple was first to market but a lot of the device manufacturers may flock to Google to adopt Android. This looks very much like the open vs closed war that we saw before.

All these companies are vying for a dominant position around the network triangle. Apple and Google are appearing as the leaders to control the overall user experience.

Context-aware technology

I just read an excellent special report on Business Week about context-aware computing. You can read most of the report here. Context-aware software tracks a person's location, interests, buying habits and other information. Smartphones are the perfect device to collect and aggregate that kind of information.
Early 2000, Location Based Services (LBS) already promised unimaginable smart services to serve coupon to shoppers walking by a store and other innovative applications. Handheld location was determined by triangulation based on signal strength from each base station. That architecture never delivered. Several reasons to this failure: hype cycle, precision was not good, wireless service providers controlled the information and wanted their own applications to use that data (not external applications). It is my opinion that the first incarnation of presence services went the same way for the exact same reasons.
Fast-forward nearly 10 years and we have a completely different environment. Apple (and its developers/partners), and Google are in total control of the user experience. Multiple applications are able to use location information to provide advanced services to the users. Yelp provides a unique example of combined use of location and camera with the Monocle feature (augmented reality).

The more source of data you can integrate (social media, CRM), the more phone features you can leverage (camera, accelerometer), the best experience you can provide and the more information about the user you get to track. Good and bad. Best way to enable this is to open up the phone platform (Android, iOS, RIM, Windows) to as many developers as possible. Java was a great example of a rapid and pervasive adoption.

Google announces Android

Last week, Google announced an open-source mobile operating system called Android. There is no doubt that this will change the way that mobile applications are developed.
As much as I like the people at RIM, they have no innovation on the application side that can resist what Apple and Google are doing to them right now. Ask people why they have a Blackberry today and the answer will be: push email. Messaging was a great differentiator 3 years ago, but for iPhones and Android-based phones, this is not even a table stake anymore.

Operating systems that can accommodate a rich and vibrant developer community will allow the creation of many small innovative applications that will drive revenue for carriers, handset manufacturers and developers. The more revenue they will generate with the platform, the more new developers will invest in this technology. Microsoft's response will be interesting, since they would be the only other serious contender in this battle.

Control of the user is achieved through control of the device, network and content. Google is becoming quite dominant here.